Mr. Sandeep Agarwal

Excerpts:

1. What are your views on fixed income market? How have the yields moved and which direction you see them moving in near to mid-term and why? What will the key driving factors for yields?

The previous year was a mixed bag for fixed income markets with a lot of volatility. We saw rate cuts of 125bps from RBI which led to initial rally in bonds & money market, though the rally in bonds reversed in second Half on concerns of higher than expected supply in State development loans, High fiscal deficit, FPI outflows, pace of Fed rate hike and sharp currency deprecation. However market perception has changed post union budget as government stuck to its pre stated fiscal deficit target and Fed chair has also sounded dovish in its recent speech. Subdued Inflation numbers have also played a positive role all along.

We believe that with comfortable domestic macro-economic factors, lower fiscal and current account deficit, sufficient forex reserves, dovish Fed, RBI should be comfortable in cutting repo rate further by 25-50bps in its upcoming policy. Further the technical factors like lower than expected supply on government bonds & Special state development loans, lower bank deposit and small savings rates will put downward pressure on yields.

Going forward factors like inflation, monsoon, FPI flows and currency markets will be in the spot light for further clue on domestic interest rates.

2. What is your strategy for short term funds? What is your exposure to long term funds and why?

Short term funds are largely focused on higher accrual income by investing in prudent mix of securities across maturities & liquidity profile depending upon the each fund's mandate. Also there is high focus on capturing the opportunities for capital gains in shorter time horizon. Investments in long term funds are focused to provide Income over medium to long term with larger focus on capturing capital gains than on accrual income. Long term funds asset allocation is largely strategic than tactical and in line with long term interest rate view of the fund manager. Currently our exposures on long term fund are higher side of the duration band as per fund mandate. 

3. Kindly share your views on recent inflation movement? Where will the inflation curve move in near term? Why?

The recent movement in inflation has been favourable for the economy. Policy makers have been successful in bringing down the inflation and inflation expectations over the past two years. The RBI achieved its target of headline CPI inflation under 6% by January 2016. The government has formally accepted a target of 4% ± 2ppt in its monetary policy framework with RBI. This has been possible due to combined effect of tight monetary policy by RBI, lower global commodity prices, and government efforts to keep food prices and rural wage growth lower by adopting appropriate measures.

Going ahead we expect inflation to remain benign in the range of 5%-6%. However we would also keep a watch on rise in global crude prices and its pass-through effect to transport services, any pick-up in demand-side prices pressures and housing rents as the 7th pay commission rise is implemented and monsoons (as last two year's monsoons have been poor and reservoirs levels are at critical levels) and its impact on food prices.

4. What's your investment strategy?

Our investment strategy is focused on the fund mandate and is calibrated accordingly. This in effect means we look at various duration buckets and position the various funds and manage them accordingly depending on the type of instrument we have to focus as per the fund mandate.

5. How often do you re-balance your debt allocation?

Portfolio re-balancing is a continuous process and part of regular fund management. Fund management team keeps a tab on upcoming economic data and events to validate their views on interest rates and portfolios are re-balanced if required. 

6. If the interest rates fall further what will be your strategy for debt funds?

Yield curve at any point in time is reflective of market expectation of future macro-economic factors. Our portfolio positioning will not depend on any static point or yield level but will be based on our interest views and relative attractiveness of various instruments and opportunities available. However tactical allocations in portfolio may change along with downward fall in yields.

7. What is your advice to the investors?

My advice to the investors is that always invest as per your objectives, risk appetite and investment horizon and don't mix your long term view with possibility of short term gains.

8. How you'll rate the Union Budget 2016-17 on a scale of 1-10 and why? Any particular announcement in budget which will impact your business, how?

I would rate Union Budget 7 on a 1-10 scale as government was able to contain fiscal deficit as per pre stated target along with maintaining the push of spending of infrastructure and some positive steps on Institutional & financials reforms. Moreover the increased focus of rural economy was a good move, particularly in back drop of poor monsoon for continuously two year in a row. In India still a majority of population depends on agriculture and demand cycle in economy starts from rural economy. However, lower capital allocations for PSU banks, off balance sheet financing for infra projector and slower movement on reforms was a disappointment.

Lower than expected fiscal deficit and market borrowing numbers was a welcome move from fixed income market perspective which will create further headroom for rate cuts by RBI along with addressing the market concern of higher government bond supply.

9. When and how do you see rural consumption recovering?

As discussed above rural consumption recovery is the key for reviving domestic economic. Poor monsoon for consecutively two years has resulted in significant drop in rural consumption. However, Union budget 2016-17 has greater focus to revive rural consumption with plan for doubling farmer's income in next five years. Government increased its allocation of fund on rural economy for building infrastructure like roads and low cost housing, providing e-platform to sell agriculture produce. This will boost employment in near term and build base for future long term growth due to improved connectivity and infrastructure. However all these measures will take time to show results on ground and we can expect any meaningful results only in medium term.

10. Foreign investors are shying from Indian markets. How do you explain it even after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 29 February budget sparked a rally in bonds and the rupee?

FPI flows into India markets which were negative in this financial year 2015-16 till Union budget on 29^th February 2016 have seen inflows into equities of around USD 3.4 billion in month of March. Inflows in bonds were marginally negative even after budget largely due to other factors in play. If we look at this in details we have seen huge inflows of $ 27bn in bonds in bonds in FY 2014-15. However in 2015-16 FPI exhausted their limits in government securities and hence no further investment was possible. Further due to realignment of emerging markets allocations by some FPI's after sharp depreciation in EM currencies resulted in marginal outflows in bonds.

Also due to several factors, including surprise Chinese yuan (CNY) depreciation and USD strength, triggered INR depreciation last year. Further In back drop of last year's sharp depreciation in EM currencies, INR depreciation path will be more benign than in FY16. Moreover, we think the RBI is well positioned to contain any sharp volatility in the FX markets. However rollover of FCNR deposits of close to ~35 bn are maturing in September 2016 would be a key event to watch.

Going forward the turnaround in FII risk aversion, improving prospects in Indian economy in 2016-17 post a prudent budget will also drive in flows to Indian markets. FPIs may emerge as a new source of demand for Government Bonds with increase in FPI limits by RBI FY 2016-17.